WASHINGTON – Democrats who once saw retaking the US Senate as a long shot in 2026 have new hope thanks to an unpopular president and the California donor machine that has kicked into gear.
Californians have given out-of-state money to Democrats in nearly every hotly contested race, and in many cases have given more than in-state donors, according to a Times analysis of campaign finance filings covering the first three months of 2026.
Sen. Georgia’s Jon Ossoff, who took in more than $14 million in total, received almost as much from California donors as from supporters in his home state among donors who gave at least $200 and whose identities were disclosed.
James Talarico, a Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, has raised $27 million so far this year, while California donors have contributed just under $1.2 million to his campaign – second only to Texas supporters among anonymous donors.
Donors who give less than $200 are not required to be identified on campaign finance reports and make up the majority of donors to Ossoff and Talarico’s campaigns.
Republicans currently control the Senate with 53 of the chamber’s 100 seats. There are 35 seats up for grabs this year, including special elections in Florida and Ohio.
The GOP is still winning an important money race
While most of the seats up for grabs are in Republican hands, polls showing the possibility of tight races in some of them have given Democrats hope that they can narrow or reverse their deficit in November.
Democratic front-runners have edged out their GOP rivals in hotly contested Senate races, but Republicans are winning the money race among cash-strapped committees that can accept checks much larger than $7,000 in campaign contributions.
Democratic candidates have continued the tradition of relying on donors in the country’s most populous state to register their campaigns.
“California has been a rich gold mine for many candidates and continues to be,” said Michael Beckel, director of political reform finance at Issue One, a bipartisan advocacy group.
Democratic Senate candidates in several races raised more from donors in California than from donors in their home states, according to campaign finance reports filed Wednesday.
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska, who is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, brought in nearly $900,000 from California donors who gave at least $200. Alaska donors contributed just over $520,000 to Peltola during the same period.
Two of the three leading Democratic hopefuls in Michigan’s open Senate race, Rep. Haley Stevens and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, reported that they took more from donors in California than from donors in Michigan. California was the second largest bank to support another Democratic contender, Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
And in Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn, who is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, brought in $80,000 more from disclosed California donors than from Nebraskans.
Dozens of California donors have given to at least five members of the state Senate, according to a The Times analysis of filing data.
Burbank playwright Winnie Holzman has donated to Democratic candidates in nine key races and said she was motivated to donate to them — and other candidates and political parties — out of concern about the policies of President Trump’s administration and what she sees as violations of the law.
“This isn’t just about who’s in the Senate,” said Holzman, who wrote the screenplay for “The Bad” and wrote the adaptation of his film. “But if enough Democrats were in the Senate right now, there would be a lot of power to go back on this.”
The impressive fundraising by Democrats comes with an important caveat.
Two of the most prominent political committees supporting Republican Senate candidates — the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC — both criticized rival Democratic parties in large numbers this cycle.
For the NRSC, an $11.5-million fundraising gain since the start of 2025 translated to a $2-million lower profit in the bank at the end of February compared to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
But the Senate Leadership Fund, which can accept unlimited money from donors, had $91.6 million more to spend at the end of March than Democratic rival Senate Majority PAC.
And the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. it had a staggering $312 million in the bank at the end of February.
Funds raised by campaign committees, however, bring some advantages over funds raised by other committees. Most importantly, candidates are able to buy advertising at cheaper rates than other political committees.
That’s a significant difference in a year when advertising spending in Senate races is expected to top $2.8 billion.
Map of the Senate
While political analysts expect Democrats to do well in congressional races — with early signs pointing to the possibility of the party regaining control of the House — winning control of the Senate could be a very tall order.
“The Senate is going to be won or lost in red states,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Even in the best-case scenario for the Democrats, to regain control of the chamber they will need to win at least two states such as Iowa, Alaska, Ohio or Texas, all of which went to Trump in the 2024 presidential election by double digits.
With the large sums of money that can be raised – and spent – on both sides, Kondik said fundraising can reach a point of diminishing returns.
“You would prefer to have less than less, obviously, but the actual effect is debatable,” he said.
And history shows that fundraising power doesn’t necessarily mean electoral success in November.
Take the example of Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
In his 2018 challenge to Republican Ted Cruz, O’Rourke brought in more than $80 million, more than double Cruz’s $35 million in fundraising.
But it wasn’t enough to put the El Paso congressman on top.
O’Rourke lost the race by an estimated 2.5 percentage points.
