Democrats take over the Senate? Seriously? Even though Trump is sinking in the polls, it may be a news dream

Let’s not get carried away here.

The Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are somewhere between improbable and non-existent.

But then it suddenly became a big media conversation.

It’s like a Rube Goldberg contraption: If this happens and happens and this other long shot somehow falls into place, the ball ends up in the cup.

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Almost everyone, including many Republicans I’ve spoken to privately, agrees that the Democrats will take the House in November. The margin may not be large, given that most incumbents win re-election, but the opposition’s control of the floor, committees and the storm of investigations will completely change the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.

The latest NBC poll has 63 percent of those who strongly disapprove or disapprove of Trump’s performance, and 67 percent who strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. Wow.

But now mainstream pundits are so drawn by those sinking poll numbers, and anti-war sentiment, that they believe Democrats can navigate the waters and perhaps ride that flood into control of the Senate.

They even talked about Texas.

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I mean, come on. Remember the endless hype surrounding Beto O’Rourke, who lost the Senate and the governorship? Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s. Yet every few years we get a “this is it! Texas is ready to turn blue!”

I know, Democratic contender James Talarico has raised truckloads of money since CBS refused to air his interview with Stephen Colbert.

Even in politics you will never say.

Much will depend on whether Sen. Whether John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP race. Cornyn is considered by many Republicans to be very moderate. But Paxton was indicted (and then acquitted) on charges including bribery in 2023, settled fraud charges by paying kickbacks, and divorced his wife by claiming an affair.

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, (left) faces off against Attorney General Ken Paxton (right) in a bitter GOP primary. (Getty Images)

So yes, it’s a crazy year.

And yes, once the war is over, much will depend on the economy bouncing back – a tired cliché that happens to be true.

The New York Times explores the question in an article so loaded with caveats that its corporate bottom is fully covered:

“A green wave isn’t guaranteed, of course, and the Democrats won’t be guaranteed to flip two reliably Republican states either way. But the way the party is likely to win the Senate will be focused.”

That’s called tiptoeing in the water. Nate Cohn’s carefully constructed piece acknowledges that Democratic candidates will have to win seven out of seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!

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I mean, that’s like the world getting to see the dark side of the moon.

Uh, let’s try another analogy.

Seven out of seven chances of winning the lottery are slim.

There is little chance of a sudden dip in fuel prices. That’s why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gasoline prices below $3 a gallon “may not happen until next year.”

“It’s absolutely wrong,” the president said.

So here is the rundown.

All the Dems in the Senate today represent the country that Joe Biden will carry in 2020, because the party has done poorly in red states. (One example: When West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who drove Biden crazy, retired, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.)

And – here’s another Times warning! – no group was able to change two states that are otherwise dependent on politics since 2008.

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The test basically depends on the quality of the Democratic candidates going to the midterms.

In North Carolina, former governor Roy Cooper.

In Ohio, it’s former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024 during Trump’s victory.

In Alaska, former Representative Mary Peltola is already leading the polls.

But Maine is strange. A strong opponent should have been Gov. Janet Mills. But he trails in the primary, 2 to 1, behind emerging first-round contender and veteran Graham Platner.

Platner admitted to wearing a Nazi tattoo. In 2021, CNN reported a series of posts in which Platner called himself a communist, said rural Americans were “racist” and “stupid,” described all police officers as “bastards,” and used the word “retard” several times. He says these were silly jokes. Elizabeth Warren also campaigned with him over the weekend.

Sullivan Harbormaster Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills is running in a heated Democratic primary race to face Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in November. (Getty Images)

Furthermore, can either candidate unseat independent Republican Susan Collins?

At the same time, Democrats must secure seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

Even the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted four Senate races to Democrats, but that’s from Solid Republican to Casual Republican, or Lean Republican to Tossup. Not exactly a slam dunk.

But the Times story has started to gain popularity on television.

“Republicans Begin to Worry About Losing Senate,” cried the MS NOW banner.

The Times’ big hedge: “If a blue wave happens, Democrats have a chance to ride it to control of the Senate.”

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But here’s the thing. It is an off-year election. Let’s not forget: everything depends on the output.

If Trump voters are depressed, many may stay home. If the Democratic Alliance voters are marked but not to the point of going to the polls, that will negate the effect.

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If politics were predictable, popes and junkies would have very little material for their endless arguments.

Footnote: I am ready to eat crow on November 3rd.