So the Iranians would not stop their uranium enrichment or dismantle their enrichment facilities. Or give away their already enriched uranium. So President Trump turned the tables, used Trumpian Jiu-Jitsu, and blocked the United States military in the Strait of Hormuz from being forced into the Gulf of Oman.
I’m not sure anyone knows how this is all going to go down, but at least as of today, here’s what America’s Central Command has to say: “Any vessel entering or leaving the blockade without authorization is subject to blockade, diversion, and seizure. The blockade will not block central navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian territories.”
To my way of thinking, that means anyone doing business with Iran will have their ships blocked. And if Iranian motorboats shoot pot in our Navy, we will destroy them the same way we did with all those Venezuelan drug boats. To a large extent, Mr. Trump has adopted the Venezuelan model. Iran doesn’t sell oil, it doesn’t make money, so it can’t disperse any income, and America is clearly taking control of the entire Persian Gulf area.
The president had to say about all this: “All are called, and all come out.” He added: “We think many countries will help us with this, but we are imposing a total blockade. We will not allow Iran to make money by selling oil to people they like, not people they don’t like or whatever. It will be all or nothing,” and “I predict they will come back and give us everything we want.”
Former US special envoy to Ukraine Gen. Keith Kellogg discusses how the US-Iran conflict affects China and Russia as the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz goes into effect on ‘Kudlow.’
I say good. And then there is the question of when will Iran go all in? Some quick numbers from several sources, including TIPP Insights and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies more than 90 percent of Iran’s approximately 110 billion annual Persian Gulf exports, crude oil alone was earning 139 million dollars a day before the start of the war. Petrochemicals earn another $54 million per day.
So at $435 million a day in lost revenue, that comes to $159 billion a year. That loss of 159 billion dollars is about 50 percent more than the entire Iranian budget of about 100 billion dollars. When does bankruptcy happen? I honestly don’t know.
According to sources, Iran’s offshore oil storage starts to run out in about 13 days. So that means that shutting down the infrastructure will cause permanent damage. Whether this economic collapse will bring Iran back to the negotiating table remains to be seen.
There are a couple of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lunatics who seem to be the current leaders, Mojtaba Vehedi, and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. So I would not be so sure about any change of grace regime. The big question is how long will it take to starve them out?
