President Vladimir V. Putin has cultivated the annual Victory Day parade commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany into a pillar of Russian patriotic culture. Tanks and nuclear bombs roll into Red Square in a show of military might and righteous pride used by the Kremlin to justify its superpower stance toward the West.
This year, the parade highlights a moment of weakness for Mr.
Moscow is under heavy security as Ukraine engages Russia with long-range missile strikes. Saturday’s show will not include traditional missiles and defenses. Personnel from Russian military educational institutions and other personnel will pass through the most famous square in Russia. They include more than 1,000 soldiers and officers who are still involved in the war in Ukraine and some from North Korea, who last year participated in the expulsion of Ukrainian soldiers from the Kursk region of Russia, according to a live broadcast of the event.
Russian authorities have since admitted that the increased security is aimed at protecting Mr. Earlier this week, the Russian leader made a request to the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to the president of Ukraine. Then, on Friday night, in an announcement full of funny jokes, Mr. Zelensky said that Ukraine will “allow” Russia to hold the event without attacking it.
The scaled-down parade, at the height of the Russian calendar, adds to the sense that Moscow and other major cities are no longer immune to war.
Forced internet shutdowns presented by security services as necessary security measures have angered Russians. After years of war-induced growth, Russia’s economy is contracting, while the country’s budget deficit is at record highs.
On the front, the Russian Army is immobile, making the prospect of victory seem more remote than ever. More than four years into the war, Russia is still trying to capture the eastern Donbas region, which it says is its main objective. In World War II, the Soviets helped defeat the Nazis in a short period of time.
“Since the beginning of the year, there have been some changes that we don’t fully understand,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, an executive at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “This change includes the fact that there are non-public and, to a lesser extent, public expressions that everyone is tired.”
“Everything that is happening today from a security point of view is the result of the government feeling threatened,” said Ms. Stanovaya in a telephone interview. “Actually, it’s surprising that you hold an event in such a situation.”
Canceling the event would have made Mr Putin look very weak. So before the show, the Kremlin made a big effort to ensure the security of the event.
Blocking of mobile internet – which Russia says Ukraine uses to guide drones – has brought Moscow’s digital activities to a standstill. That deprived Muscovites of modern amenities that had long been a source of local pride and added to a growing sense of resentment.
Similar restrictions were put in place last year, when Mr Putin hosted a list of foreign leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, portraying Moscow as the center of the non-Western world order.
But at the time, many Russians hoped that President Trump would quickly end the war, making them more willing to tolerate restrictions.
Today, the situation in the Russian capital is markedly different, said Ilya Grashchenkov, a Moscow-based political analyst. “Putin says he does not intend to end it until victory,” said Mr. Grashchenkov. “This kills hope.”
According to Mr. Grashchenkov, Russian officials are waiting for Mr. Putin on the Ukraine crisis. “But so far there are only plans,” he said, “and it makes the people at the top worry.” Another possibility, he added, is a transition to perpetual war and “the transformation of Russia into something like Iran or North Korea.”
Four years ago, Mr. Putin has survived many crises that have led to predictions of the imminent fall of his rule.
At the beginning of the war, his army suffered heavy defeats, including a forced retreat from Kyiv, the city Mr. Putin described it as the center of Russian civilization. Months later, Russian troops fled the Ukrainian war in the Kharkiv region and later abandoned their only position on the right bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson.
In 2023, the mercenaries led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin made a bold and reckless riot, marching towards Moscow. Before the 2023 Victory Day parade, Ukrainian drones hit the Senate palace inside the Kremlin. In both 2022 and 2023, Ukraine managed to destroy the Crimea Bridge, a symbol of Russian control over the peninsula.
And yet Mr. Putin has maintained a sense of stability at home while his army continues to crawl forward, holding the initiative since Ukraine failed to invade in 2023 and is slowly but steadily seizing land in the Donbas.
On Thursday, Yuri Ushakov, the foreign policy assistant of Mr.
As Mr. Putin, the Russian economy has for years defied predictions of an imminent collapse. It first expanded after the invasion, fueled by a war-related influx of money that pushed living standards to their highest levels in post-Soviet history.
That momentum hit a wall last year, and Russia is now teetering on the brink of crisis due to high interest rates and Western sanctions with limited revenue from energy exports.
“For the first time,” said Mr. Grashchenkov, “we are facing a major recession.”
But Ms. Stanovaya, the Russian analyst, warned that Mr. At any time, he said, he could choose to increase Russia’s military presence, perhaps by conducting further mobilization or seizing assets to finance the military, which would change the narrative of weakness.
“No one knows the limits at which Putin might hit the table and say, ‘Enough,'” Ms. Stanovaya said. He can be patient for a long time. Then he warns about something to do, as it was in war.
