Nearly three weeks after a cease-fire agreement between Lebanon and Israel began, increasing attacks and civilian infiltration are exposing cracks in the agreement that analysts say will not end the violence.
The deal was intended to stop the escalation of hostilities between the countries after Hezbollah fired into Israel on March 2 in support of Iran, the Shia group’s main backer, the US and Israel launched an attack on it on February 28. Israel then attacked Lebanon in March.
But the two continued to trade fire even after the agreement, announced on April 16, in which Israel issued evacuation orders from many towns and villages in southern Lebanon since then. On Wednesday, it attacked areas south of Beirut for the first time since the operation began.
That has led some political analysts to conclude that the agreement is symbolic, serving mainly to contain the fighting and as a diplomatic measure rather than a full stop to the war.
“It’s only a conflict in name – and perhaps more accurately, it’s a relative decline,” said David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group, in Beirut.
The 2nd front in the great war
The Israel-Lebanon war has become secondary to the US and Israel’s broader war against Iran, with both ceasefire agreements widely described as fragile and on the verge of collapse.
Tehran has said that any deal to end the wider conflict must end the fighting in Lebanon. Although Washington maintains that the issues are separate, US President Donald Trump has faced pressure to make a deal.
“What is Trump’s reason for forcing a ceasefire in Lebanon?” Wood said. “He was clearly connected to negotiations with Iran, and his desire to open the Strait of Hormuz.”
Similar agreements elsewhere have ultimately failed to end the violence, including in Gaza, where hundreds of people have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 2025, with both sides blaming each other for violations.
The supreme leader of Iran said in a statement that the future of the Persian Gulf is one that does not include America, and American President Donald Trump wrote ‘No more Mr. Nice Guy’ on his Truth Social forum. Israel also ordered the evacuation of people outside the ‘safe zone’ in Lebanon, warning of strikes, as Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the drone attacks.
The stability of the ceasefire agreement is further complicated by the question of whether Israel can achieve its stated goals in the region.
“Despite its intention to do this, Israel has not been able to completely limit Hamas as a military threat,” Wood said. “And, therefore, it is difficult to imagine how to remove Hezbollah as a military threat through violence.”
Meanwhile, the Iran-US deal continues to be tested, with both sides launching strikes in recent days and claiming control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Deep conflicts
The conflict between Lebanon and Israel runs deeper than any ceasefire agreement could address, with the two countries technically at war since the latter nation was founded in 1948. There, too, it is unclear whether Israel or Hezbollah can achieve their stated goals.
Israel says it wants to get rid of the group forever. But its continued attacks on Lebanon are undermining the latter’s government, which has unveiled its own disarmament plans.
Israel’s military remains less than 10 kilometers south of Lebanon, which it describes as a “secure security zone,” saying it aims to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah terrorists targeting civilian areas. Nevertheless, the army evacuated Lebanese citizens from the cities and beyond.
Israel’s military has ordered residents to evacuate the southern Lebanese city of Deir Ames, north of what it calls a ‘security zone,’ saying it plans to carry out strikes there, a day after Israel and Lebanon extended a three-week ceasefire.
“All of these activities allow Hezbollah to point to its supporters, and perhaps others in Lebanon, and say, ‘Here’s all the proof you need that diplomacy doesn’t work.'”
The only solution to ending the war is disarming Hezbollah, said Hanin Ghaddar, Friedmann’s senior fellow at the Washington Institute, which represents US interests in the Middle East.
The Lebanese government has recently pushed to do so, as Hezbollah in February reversed its decision to give the army at least four months to advance the second phase of a nationwide disarmament plan. The group said it will not accept what it sees as a move to serve Israel.
“They made a commitment – they did it; first, Lebanon approved weapons for Hezbollah, which is a big thing,” Ghaddar said. “Now, we are stuck between empowering Hezbollah and making this policy work.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah says it will attack Israeli forces as long as the country continues to attack the south. (Many view the group’s actions as an attack aimed at undermining the Lebanese government’s direct relationship with Israel.)
“Although the US president has imposed what he describes as a cease-fire – in fact, none of his opponents want to be completely bound by it, and this helps explain why they have continued to attack each other despite entering into a so-called agreement,” said Wood.
Hezbollah has said that, saying that it will not comply with any agreement for the Lebanon-Israel talks. A day after the agreement was extended for three weeks, the group called it “meaningless” because of continued Israeli operations.
More than 2,600 Lebanese have been killed and some 8,000 injured in Israeli attacks since March 2, according to the Ministry of Health. Israel’s invasion of Lebanon caused widespread destruction, especially in southern Lebanon, and forced about 1.2 million people to flee their homes. Some residents have returned to their homes in the district since April 17, despite the presence of Israeli soldiers there.
Israeli authorities say 17 soldiers and two civilians were killed in the Hezbollah attack.
Stability is impossible without broad political agreements
Although the cease-fire may not always end the fighting, the current agreement in Lebanon serves as a communication tool for the US, which is facing increasing pressure to end its war with Iran which has caused a major energy crisis.
“Trump wants to say, ‘I reached a peace agreement between two countries that have been at war for decades.’ This is a big, big, big, big take,” Ghaddar said.
The peace agreement will also follow America’s goal of eliminating Hezbollah, as it will only be achieved through disarmament, he said.
“Hezbollah at the end of the day, is an organization [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] the group. So, with [the U.S.] the war in Iran, to see that Iran has lost one of the main negotiations, is a big thing. ”
Speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he thinks a peace deal between Israel and Lebanon is “realizable now,” but Hezbollah remains a problem.
Lebanon is seeking a permanent deal with Israel that would end a decades-long cycle of violence, while stopping short of saying it wants a peace deal as it looks to avoid retreating along sectarian and political lines.
The Trump administration says the ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in place, even though both sides have launched strikes in recent days. Both countries also want to control the important Strait of Hormuz.
Paul Salem, a Beirut-based senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, He says it is difficult to see a complete end to fighting in Lebanon unless the war in the Gulf region ends, which would put a lot of pressure on Tel Aviv to do the same in Lebanon.
“Trump has enough power [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] telling him to stop completely, too [he] it will be necessary … for a while. But Trump has not yet reached that point. “
Wood says he does not believe that under the current circumstances Israel will be able to force Hezbollah to disarm through military means alone.
“Therefore, because of that, [Israel] … it will eventually need to find, or perhaps needs to find, some form of political coherence in its military operations.”
Until then, Lebanon faces the constant threat of Israeli military escalation, he said, leaving its people at the mercy of Trump’s continued intervention.
“And that, a very fragile guarantee in Lebanon, really.”
