President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to meet in Beijing next week for a high-level summit that could set the stage for the next phase of the rivalry between the world’s two largest powers.
Mr Trump and Mr Xi are expected to discuss the Iran war, trade, Taiwan and other issues at a two-day summit starting on Thursday. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi last met in October in South Korea, where they agreed to end a damaging trade war in which the US imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threatened to cut off supplies of rare earths.
Next week’s visit could determine whether the awkward détente that emerged from that meeting will hold.
A lot has changed since these leaders ended each other. Mr. Trump is facing a war with Iran, China’s closest ally in the Middle East, which has led to a global energy crisis and diverted US military assets to Asia. The war also depleted US arsenals, raising doubts among some Chinese analysts about the United States’ ability to protect Taiwan, Washington’s closest ally.
Mr. Xi faces his own challenges as he faces slow economic growth, high energy prices and the possibility of a global recession that could damage China’s export-dependent economy.
What’s on the table?
Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi is likely to discuss trade, including foreign investment. Washington has been emphasizing what analysts call the “five Bs.” These include Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, US beef and soybeans, and the creation of an investment board and a trade board. The two organizations will map out areas of economic trade between the United States and China that do not raise national security concerns.
The Chinese have been emphasizing the “Three Ts”: prices, technology and Taiwan, which Beijing claims is part of China’s territory. Beijing is likely to push for an extension of last year’s trade deal and the loosening of export controls on advanced semiconductors that China needs to boost its industrial sector. Mr. Xi, who told Mr. Trump’s phone call in February that his country “will not allow Taiwan to be separated from China,” may have pushed Mr. Trump to restore US support to this independent island.
Mr. Trump is expected to ask Beijing to urge Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are also expected to discuss cooperation in managing risks related to artificial intelligence.
Mr. Trump said he would prosecute Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison in February for his involvement in sedition. Other issues include China’s nuclear weapons development, security in the South China Sea and limiting the flow of fentanyl to the United States.
What are the possible consequences?
Mr. Trump has boasted of his relationship with Mr. Xi, whom he calls a “friend,” and is eager to announce increased Chinese investment in the United States.
But there is little hope that the two sides will reach a major economic deal or resolve their deep differences. The most likely outcome is a set of modest investment agreements and an extension of last year’s interim trade deal.
“Maybe we shouldn’t expect this meeting to be very successful,” said Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert at Shanghai’s Fudan University, who said the meeting would be a starting point for further negotiations. American officials say the two leaders may meet four times this year.
Analysts say the conference is also a way for both sides to buy time to reduce dependence on the other country as the competition continues. “Within China there is still deep suspicion of the United States,” said Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
What could go wrong?
Controversy over the Iran war could derail the talks. Without mentioning the name of Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi last month criticized the US president’s disregard for international law as “a return to the law of the jungle.”
While China has encouraged Iranian officials to negotiate with the United States, it has held back on doing more to help resolve a war that Beijing sees as Washington’s problem. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, met with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, this week in Beijing. Mr. Wang called for more efforts to open the river but also said China supports “Iran’s legitimate right to use nuclear energy peacefully.”
But Mr. Trump said on Thursday that he believed China had not offered more support to Iran’s position out of respect for his relationship with Mr.
China and the United States have been strengthening their weapons of economic warfare. When the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on China’s refining industry in April for buying Iranian oil, China ordered its companies not to comply and issued laws giving authorities the power to investigate foreign companies and governments.
Pei-Lin Wu again Luke Broadwater reporting contributed.
