EBAY Stock Jumps After Q1 2026 Beat as GMV Growth Outlook Improves

For more than 30 years, people have turned to eBay NASDAQ: EBAY to declutter their homes, profit from a collection of old baseball cards and Beanie Babies, and sell the vintage t-shirts their parents asked them to throw away decades earlier.

But eBay is not just an online marketplace and auction platform. The e-commerce company is considered one of the many counter-cyclical indicators of the recession. During economic downturns or high inflation, the company—which often features discounted, used, or refurbished items—sees more activity as buyers look to find value within tight budgets or to generate revenue from unwanted assets.

While the consumer discretionary sector was the fourth-worst performer among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors this year, eBay bucked that trend. The stock is up nearly 20 percent in 2026, easily outperforming the index’s 5 percent gain, and in the past year, EBAY shares have risen more than 50 percent.

The company recently reported Q1 FY2026 earnings, providing insight into the state of the broader economy as well as pointers on how investors can position their portfolios to prepare for a long-term downturn.

More Sellers Turn to eBay As Economy Shows Signs of Weakness

The height of eBay’s performance is most notable in its gross merchandise volume (GMV) gauge. In Q1, that figure was up 18% year-over-year (YOY).

In particular, GMV has seen the greatest gains in buyer-to-buyer transactions and the company’s remarketing—the purchase and resale of pre-owned, used, or refurbished goods.

According to eBay, those categories saw GMV growth rise to 24% in the first quarter.

In his earnings call, CEO Jamie Iannone highlighted other short-term incentives, including Pokemon’s 30th anniversary in late February, “which generated a lot of excitement that translated into great demand. [the] platform.” Iannone also noted that trading cards, collectible coins, toys, action figures, and comic books all fueled GMV growth.

Perhaps most interestingly, the CEO said that eBay “also saw a short-term benefit in GMV growth from gold and silver in response to higher precious metal prices.” Both of those precious metals hit record highs in early Q1, and Iannone noted that by the end of the quarter, demand has normalized and the company expects it to return to historic levels in Q2. That could be offset by the Depop acquisition, which is expected to be completed in the second quarter.

Nevertheless, eBay enjoyed many fundamentals of GMV growth that should continue this year as economic uncertainty and higher prices are expected to continue. The silver lining, at least for investors, is that EBAY shares are showing growth in its use of the platform, which the company recently emphasized in its latest earnings.

eBay Beats on Top and Bottom Lines, Updates Full-Year Guidance

Those strong gains in GMV translated into strong earnings when the company reported Q1 financials on April 29. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.66 beat the consensus forecast of $1.58 by eight cents. The company has not missed earnings for 14 consecutive quarters.

But the standout number was the quarter’s revenue, which was driven by the aforementioned increase in GMV. eBay saw a YOY revenue increase of 19.5%, reaching $3.09 billion and beating analyst expectations of $3.04 billion.

Better-than-expected Q1 sales figures led to higher Q2 profit and full-year GMV revisions. eBay is forecasting quarterly revenue in the range of $2.97 billion to $3.03 billion, good for a YOY increase of 8% to 10%, while full-year GMV growth is up 7% to 7.5%.

Additionally, the company reiterated its plan to repurchase nearly two billion of its shares this year. That’s part of the stock buyback authorization announced in February and includes $625 million for Q2.

At the improved forward price estimate, eBay’s EPS is expected to grow 11.25% over the next year from $4.89 per share to $5.44 per share.

Wall Street Remains Cautious Despite Improved Expectations

Although the company’s first-quarter performance was remarkable and eBay remains a key indicator of the economic downturn, analysts are taking a wait-and-see approach. After a significant rise in share prices so far this year, the 12-month price consensus of around $105 suggests a bearish average for where the stock is trading.

At the same time, more than half of analysts covering the stock (18 of 33) rate EBAY a Hold. However, it is worth mentioning that one year ago, the Wall Street price of EBAY was $67.12, about 39% lower than the current stock price, and analysts were predicting a decline of more than 2% instead of a rise of more than 50% that rewarded shareholders with it.

Institutional ownership remained above average at more than 87%, but cash outflows of more than $7 billion exceeded revenues by nearly $5 billion, with sales exceeding that amount for four consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, short interest of 2.95% float, or $1.31 billion, is down about 39% from its one-year high of $2.14 billion in May 2025.

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